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Tropical Storm Georgette Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022
200 PM PDT Thu Jul 28 2022
After the previous advisory, there was a high-resolution GMI
microwave pass over Georgette at 1522 UTC that indicated that deep
convection mentioned in the previous discussion may have helped to
align the low and mid-level centers. More recently, Georgette has
maintained a small area deep convection between -70 to -75 C near
its center, though there is evidence of easterly shear impinging on
the outflow layer. Dvorak satellite estimates were T3.0/45-kt from
both TAFB and SAB, and T2.9/43-kt from UW-CIMSS ADT. The initial
intensity is being held at 45-kt this advisory.
Georgette has been moving right of the previous forecast track,
maintaining a south of due west heading at 260/10 kt, a bit faster
than before. Part of this faster and more rightward motion could be
due in part to the cyclone being more vertically aligned than
depicted in the dynamical models. In fact, the latest 12 UTC GFS and
ECMWF are still struggling to resolve Georgette's current structure,
with both models depicting the mid-level vortex tilted about 100 n
mi NNE of the low-level center, which does not match the center
embedded in the deep convection as seen on visible satellite imagery
currently. Regardless, the track guidance has made a notable shift
right this forecast cycle, and more guidance keeps Georgette
separate from the larger circulation of Frank to its east over the
next 3-4 days. Thus, the latest track forecast now shows a faster
and farther westward track over the next 48 hours, favoring the
right side of the track guidance envelope due to the more vertically
coupled structure. After 60 hours, the tropical cyclone is expected
to make a sharp turn to the north and then northeast as it becomes
embedded in large-scale monsoonal southwesterly flow to the south of
the larger low-level circulation of Frank. he latest NHC forecast
leans heavily on a blend between the latest ECMWF forecast (EMXI)
and its ensemble mean (EMNI), which have been on the right side of
the guidance envelop. However, given the still large west-to-east
spread in the ensemble tracks in 72 hours, the track forecast still
has higher-than-normal uncertainty.
Georgette still has an opportunity to intensify a bit more in the
short-term, as the easterly shear is not expected to increase much
in the next 24 hours as the cyclone remains over 28C sea surface
temperatures. However, something to watch out for is the possibility
of dry-air entrainment given the very dry mid-level relative
humidity environment. Stable stratocumulus clouds are also seen
immediately to the northeast of Georgette's cirrus shield, and if
that is ingested into the core, it could disrupt the storm's
structure. After 36 hours, the easterly shear could increase further
as Frank's upper-level outflow begins to impinge on the much smaller
Georgette. At the end of the forecast, Georgette is forecast to be
caught in strong southwesterly monsoonal flow to the south of Frank
and it could open up into a trough axis by 120 hours. The NHC
intensity forecast is quite similar to the previous one, and still
lies near the LGEM guidance.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/2100Z 15.6N 120.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 15.1N 121.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 14.6N 122.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 14.1N 123.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 30/1800Z 13.7N 124.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 31/0600Z 13.8N 124.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 31/1800Z 14.7N 124.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 01/1800Z 17.5N 123.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Papin
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