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Tropical Storm Georgette Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082022
800 PM PDT Wed Jul 27 2022
 
Georgette is a small tropical cyclone with some strong deep
convection concentrated near its center.  Limited banding features
are present around the northern semicircle of the storm, and
upper-level outflow is well defined over the western portion of the
circulation.  Moderate easterly shear, associated with the flow on
the southern side of an upper-level anticyclone. has been impinging
on the system.  The advisory intensity is nudged upward slightly to
40 kt based on the latest objective Dvorak estimates from UW-CIMSS.
 
Although the shear is not expected to diminish much over the next
several days, some modest short-term strengthening could occur
while Georgette remains in a favorable thermodynamic environment.
The longer-term intensity forecast for the system is quite
uncertain, since it is highly dependent on how much influence the
larger circulation of Tropical Storm, or Hurricane, Frank will have
on Georgette.  The forecast track shows Georgette coming within 
about 175 n mi of Frank in 96 hours, and although the official 
forecast shows Georgette weakening by that time, it is quite 
possible that the cyclone will be in the process of becoming 
absorbed by Frank around that time.  For now, the forecast will show 
Georgette as a separate system, as suggested by the ECMWF 
simulation.  However, the GFS model prediction continues to 
show Georgette being absorbed by the larger tropical cyclone in a 
few days.  It will be interesting to see how this plays out.
 
The motion continues westward or about 270/9 kt.  A northeast to 
southwest-oriented mid-level ridge to the northwest of the system 
should cause Georgette to turn west-southwestward and 
southwestward during the next 48 hours.  Thereafter, the cyclone is 
expected to turn northwestward and then northward in the flow on the 
south and east side of Frank.  The official track forecast has been 
shifted a little to the east of the previous one but not as far east 
as the latest simple and corrected consensus forecasts.  As in the 
previous advisory, the NHC track prediction is of lower-than-normal 
confidence due to the uncertainty of the future interaction of 
Georgette and Frank.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/0300Z 16.4N 116.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  28/1200Z 15.8N 117.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  29/0000Z 15.0N 119.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  29/1200Z 14.3N 120.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  30/0000Z 14.0N 120.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  30/1200Z 14.5N 121.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  31/0000Z 15.3N 122.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  01/0000Z 17.0N 122.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  02/0000Z 19.5N 122.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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