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Hurricane Frank Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022
800 AM PDT Sun Jul 31 2022
An 0933 UTC AMSR2 microwave overpass revealed the fragments of a
small inner eye and a much larger 60 to 75 n-mi-wide eye. Since that
time, the cloud tops have generally warmed with a small CDO feature
remaining. Frank's outflow is still well established owing to the
low vertical wind shear conditions. Objective and subjective Dvorak
intensity estimates range between 65 and 77 kt, so the initial
intensity has been lowered to 75 kt for this advisory.
Frank has crossed the 26 degree Celsius isotherm and will be moving
over progressively cooler waters during the next few days. In
addition, the storm will be entering a drier and more stable
environment. Thus, steady weakening is expected, and Frank is
forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone within 72 hours, and
dissipate by the end of the period. The NHC intensity forecast
follows the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids closely and is essentially
an update of the previous advisory.
Frank is moving northwestward or 315/10 kt. The cyclone should move
on a general northwestward track over the next couple of days around
the southwestern portion of a mid-level ridge. After that time, a
weaker and more shallow system is predicted to decelerate and turn
north-northwest to northward within the low-level flow. The updated
NHC track forecast is in good agreement with the latest consensus
models and is very close to the previous official forecast.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 31/1500Z 19.3N 119.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 20.4N 120.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 21.9N 121.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 23.5N 123.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 02/1200Z 25.2N 124.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 03/0000Z 27.0N 125.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 03/1200Z 28.7N 126.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 04/1200Z 31.8N 126.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Brown
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