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Hurricane Frank Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072022
900 PM MDT Fri Jul 29 2022
 
Frank is on a strengthening trend. Satellite images show that deep
convection has become more symmetric around the center, and there
have been hints of an eye forming. Although banding features have
become well established, microwave data indicate that a well-defined
inner has not yet developed. The latest satellite intensity
estimates range from 60 to 77 kt, and based on that data and the
improvement in the system's structure, the initial intensity is
increased to 70 kt. The minimum pressure has been set at 983 mb.
This makes Frank the sixth hurricane of the 2022 eastern North
Pacific season.
 
Over the past 12 hours, Frank has been moving west-northwestward at 
9 kt. A turn to the northwest is expected on Saturday, and that 
motion is forecast to continue during the next several days as the 
hurricane moves toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge. The NHC 
track forecast is a little to the left of the previous one, 
partially due to an adjustment of the initial position in that 
direction. This forecast lies close to the multi-model consensus 
TVCE from 12 to 72 hours, but is left of that aid beyond that, 
leaning toward the GFS and ECMWF models.

Frank is expected to remain in near ideal conditions of very low 
wind shear, warm waters, and a moist airmass for another 24-36 
hours. In fact, the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Indices show a 
greater than 60 percent chance that Frank could rapidly intensify 
during that period. The NHC intensity forecast during that time has 
been adjusted upward and lies a little above the consensus aids 
given the favorable environment and improving storm structure. 
However, by late Sunday, Frank will be moving over much cooler 
waters and into a progressively drier airmass, which should cause 
steady weakening. Although the system will be moving over quite cool 
waters in a few days, the GFS model suggests that it could still be 
producing some deep convection enhanced by a nearby trough, which 
might delay its transition into a remnant low.   
 
It again should be noted that Frank and Tropical Storm Georgette
are expected to come close enough to one another for some
interaction. Frank will be the larger and dominant system during
this interaction, and the smaller and weaker Georgette will have
little impact on the track or intensity of Frank.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/0300Z 15.1N 114.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  30/1200Z 16.0N 116.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  31/0000Z 17.1N 117.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  31/1200Z 18.5N 119.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  01/0000Z 19.7N 120.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  01/1200Z 21.0N 122.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  02/0000Z 22.2N 123.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  03/0000Z 24.3N 126.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  04/0000Z 26.3N 129.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
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