ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Frank Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022 900 PM MDT Fri Jul 29 2022 Frank is on a strengthening trend. Satellite images show that deep convection has become more symmetric around the center, and there have been hints of an eye forming. Although banding features have become well established, microwave data indicate that a well-defined inner has not yet developed. The latest satellite intensity estimates range from 60 to 77 kt, and based on that data and the improvement in the system's structure, the initial intensity is increased to 70 kt. The minimum pressure has been set at 983 mb. This makes Frank the sixth hurricane of the 2022 eastern North Pacific season. Over the past 12 hours, Frank has been moving west-northwestward at 9 kt. A turn to the northwest is expected on Saturday, and that motion is forecast to continue during the next several days as the hurricane moves toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge. The NHC track forecast is a little to the left of the previous one, partially due to an adjustment of the initial position in that direction. This forecast lies close to the multi-model consensus TVCE from 12 to 72 hours, but is left of that aid beyond that, leaning toward the GFS and ECMWF models. Frank is expected to remain in near ideal conditions of very low wind shear, warm waters, and a moist airmass for another 24-36 hours. In fact, the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Indices show a greater than 60 percent chance that Frank could rapidly intensify during that period. The NHC intensity forecast during that time has been adjusted upward and lies a little above the consensus aids given the favorable environment and improving storm structure. However, by late Sunday, Frank will be moving over much cooler waters and into a progressively drier airmass, which should cause steady weakening. Although the system will be moving over quite cool waters in a few days, the GFS model suggests that it could still be producing some deep convection enhanced by a nearby trough, which might delay its transition into a remnant low. It again should be noted that Frank and Tropical Storm Georgette are expected to come close enough to one another for some interaction. Frank will be the larger and dominant system during this interaction, and the smaller and weaker Georgette will have little impact on the track or intensity of Frank. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 15.1N 114.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 16.0N 116.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 31/0000Z 17.1N 117.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 31/1200Z 18.5N 119.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 01/0000Z 19.7N 120.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 01/1200Z 21.0N 122.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 02/0000Z 22.2N 123.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 03/0000Z 24.3N 126.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 04/0000Z 26.3N 129.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi NNNN
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Page last modified: Saturday, 31-Dec-2022 12:10:01 UTC