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HURRICANE ESTELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062022
0300 UTC TUE JUL 19 2022
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 113.6W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT.......100NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 113.6W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 113.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 18.7N 115.3W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  60SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 19.4N 117.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  50SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 20.3N 119.8W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 21.3N 122.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 22.1N 124.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE   0SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.8N 125.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 23.3N 128.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 23.0N 131.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 113.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN
 
 
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