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HURRICANE ESTELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062022
2100 UTC SUN JUL 17 2022
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 107.9W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  984 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE  10SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE  75SE  60SW 105NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 107.9W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 107.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 16.7N 109.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 17.3N 111.8W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  80SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 17.7N 114.1W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  80SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 18.3N 116.5W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  80SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 19.2N 118.9W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  80SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.3N 121.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 21.9N 125.2W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 22.8N 128.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 107.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BUCCI
 
 
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