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Tropical Storm Estelle Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
200 AM PDT Thu Jul 21 2022
Estelle is nearing the end of its run as a tropical cyclone. A 0243
UTC SSMIS microwave pass revealed a small curved band of inner core
convection, but since then, only sporadic convective bursts have
occurred near its center while the inner core cloud top temperatures
have warmed. Objective and subjective satellite estimates continue
to decrease, and the initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt for this
advisory. Without organized convection near its center, Estelle will
continue to weaken as it moves into a drier airmass over 21-22 C
SSTs. It is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low later
today, and the remnant low should open into a trough and dissipate
this weekend.
Estelle is moving west-northwestward at 290/11 kt. The system is
expected to slow down over the next couple of days and gradually
turn westward as it becomes steered by a low-level ridge over the
eastern North Pacific. The NHC track forecast lies near or just
south of the HCCA and TVCE consensus aids, which is similar to the
previous forecast.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/0900Z 22.3N 124.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 22.6N 125.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 22/0600Z 23.0N 127.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 22/1800Z 23.2N 128.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 23/0600Z 23.4N 130.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 23/1800Z 23.5N 131.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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