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Tropical Storm Estelle Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
200 AM PDT Wed Jul 20 2022
Estelle's cloud pattern has been reduced to small bursts of deep
convection near its center this morning. A 0427 UTC GMI microwave
pass revealed a couple of fragmented curved bands around its
circulation, but cloud top temperatures in this region have warmed
during the past several hours. Unfortunately, scatterometer data
failed to sample the inner core of Estelle this morning. A blend of
the current intensity Dvorak estimates from TAFB (T3.5/55 kt) and
SAB (T3.0/45 kt) support lowering the initial intensity to 50 kt.
A mid-level ridge to the northeast of Estelle is steering the
tropical storm toward the west-northwest at 295/12 kt. This general
motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected for the
next couple of days or so. Then, a westward turn is forecast as the
shallow, weakening system becomes steered by the low-level easterly
trade winds. The NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous
one and remains near the HCCA and TVCE consensus aids.
Decreasing SSTs along Estelle's path will make it increasingly
difficult for the cyclone to sustain deep, organized convection
during the next couple of days. Continued weakening is expected, and
Estelle is likely to lose all convection by Thursday as it moves
into a drier and more stable environment over sub-22 deg C waters.
The latest NHC forecast calls for Estelle to become a post-tropical
remnant low on Thursday and dissipate this weekend.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/0900Z 20.6N 119.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 21.1N 121.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 21/0600Z 21.7N 123.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 21/1800Z 22.2N 124.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 22/0600Z 22.7N 126.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 22/1800Z 23.0N 127.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 23/0600Z 23.1N 128.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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