ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Storm Estelle Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
200 PM PDT Tue Jul 19 2022
Deep convection reformed over the center today while the vertical
wind shear abated. Data from a recent scatterometer pass showed
that Estelle still has winds of at least 55 kt, which will be used
for the advisory intensity. This is a little above most of the
Dvorak estimates.
Based on the current intensity trend and the forecast for weak
vertical wind shear, it seems possible that Estelle may maintain its
strength for about 12 hours while over marginal sea surface
temperatures. Within a day or so, the storm is forecast to be over
even cooler waters and within a drier mid- to low-level environment
which should result in weakening. Estelle is predicted to be a
remnant low in a couple of days. The official intensity forecast is
close the latest Decay-SHIPS guidance.
The forward motion of the storm has increased slightly to 12 kt
while Estelle moves west-northwestward around the periphery of a
mid-level ridge. This general trajectory is likely to continue for
the next few days until the weakening circulation becomes more
shallow and is steered by the low-level winds. The NHC track
forecast is nearly identical to the previous advisory prediction,
and is quite similar to the multi-model consensus aid, TVCE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/2100Z 19.5N 116.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 20.1N 118.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 20.9N 120.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 21.6N 122.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 21/1800Z 22.2N 124.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 22/0600Z 22.6N 126.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 22/1800Z 22.9N 127.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 23/1800Z 23.0N 130.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 24/1800Z...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci
NNNN