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Hurricane Estelle Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
900 PM MDT Mon Jul 18 2022
Estelle's structure has continued to go downhill this afternoon and
evening. While upper-level outflow is fanning out westward ahead of
the hurricane, last light visible satellite imagery continues to
indicate that the low-level center remains displaced to the
northwest of the coldest cloud tops. In fact, an earlier AMSR2
microwave pass at 2057 UTC showed increasing separation between the
low-level center on the 37-GHz channel and the mid-level center on
the 89-GHz channel. This southeast tilt with height also appears to
be captured well on the most recent HWRF run, and is likely the
result of continued northwesterly shear undercutting the outflow
layer, helping import dry stable air into Estelle's core. Satellite
intensity estimates have been gradually decreasing, though an
earlier ASCAT-C pass at 1722 UTC still showed peak winds of 61-kt in
the northeast quadrant of the circulation. Assuming some
undersampling, the initial intensity is lowered to only 65 kt this
advisory, though this could be generous.
It seems that Estelle's time left to intensify has run out. In fact,
the hurricane has already been gradually weakening over the past day
or so. While the current moderate northwesterly shear is expected to
subside some over the next 24 hours, the cyclone will be moving over
sub 26 C sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) by that time span. Thus,
the latest intensity forecast now shows Estelle gradually weakening
over the next 24-48 hours, with more pronounced weakening thereafter
when SSTs drop below 23 C. Simulated IR brightness temperature data
from the ECMWF and CMC models suggest Estelle will cease to produce
organized deep convection by 72 hours, and the system is forecast to
become a post-tropical remnant low by then. The latest NHC intensity
forecast is now more in line with the intensity guidance consensus,
though early on favors a blend of the HWRF/HMON forecasts, which
appear to be correctly capturing the current tilted structure of the
cyclone well.
Estelle has been taking a slight leftward bend in its recent track,
but in general has maintained a west-northwestward heading at 285/12
kt. A prominent mid-level ridge located to the northeast of Estelle
should maintain the cyclone on a west-northwest heading at a similar
motion for the next 2-3 days. Thereafter, as the system becomes more
vertically shallow, its track is forecast to bend back westward as
it becomes more steered by the low-level easterly trade winds. The
latest track forecast is very close to the prior forecast, taking a
blend of the consensus aids HCCA and TVCE.
Estelle is expected to continue producing rough surf and rip current
conditions along the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico
as well as the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula during
the next day or so.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/0300Z 18.3N 113.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 18.7N 115.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 20/0000Z 19.4N 117.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 20/1200Z 20.3N 119.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 21/0000Z 21.3N 122.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 21/1200Z 22.1N 124.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 22/0000Z 22.8N 125.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 23/0000Z 23.3N 128.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 24/0000Z 23.0N 131.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Papin
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