ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Hurricane Estelle Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
900 PM MDT Sun Jul 17 2022
Estelle's structure this evening is quite disheveled, with
last-light visible satellite imagery suggesting that the low-level
center was somewhat detached north from the deeper convective
activity that is more aligned with the mid-level center. We finally
received our first microwave imagery over Estelle in more than 24
hours, an AMSR2 pass at 2013 UTC, which confirmed this structure,
also indicating that the center had jogged a bit north of the
previous forecast track. Subjective Dvorak satellite estimates at
0000 UTC from TAFB and SAB were still 77 kt and 65 kt
respectively, but both SATCON and ADT estimates have dropped from
earlier today. The initial intensity this advisory is set at 70 kt
as a compromise from all these various estimates.
Despite the earlier northward jog, Estelle remains on a general
west-northwestward heading at 300/10 kt. A mid-level ridge is
situated north of the cyclone, and is forecast to build-in further
westward with time. The model guidance responds to this building
ridge by maintaining Estelle on a similar heading, though with a
short-term bend more westward and slight acceleration in the forward
motion. The latest track forecast shows a similar evolution, though
is on the north side of the guidance envelope early on, due to both
the further north initial position, and the somewhat leftward bias
observed in the track forecast over the past 24 hours. However, by
the end of the forecast period, the current track forecast ends up
located close to the multi-model consensus aid TVCE.
The intensity forecast is a bit problematic. Estelle appears to have
ingested dry air into its inner-core today, possibly assisted by
moderate northerly vertical wind shear under the typical 200-850 mb
layer. This shear may be a result of the current misaligned low and
mid-level centers. This inner-core structure also argues against
rapid intensification in the short-term. However, SHIPS
environmental variables still show Estelle remaining over 28C or
warmer sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) over the next 24-36 hours
while embedded in a fairly moist mid-level environment. Assuming the
current dry-air near the core can be mixed out and the moderate
shear does not import additional dry air, intensification still
appears possible. The latest intensity forecast now indicates a more
gradual intensification rate, assuming it will take a little time
for the current core structure to recover. This intensity forecast
is still somewhat higher than the majority of the guidance. After
36 hours, Estelle will be crossing a sharp SST gradient, and be
over sub 25C waters by 60 hours. Thus, weakening is anticipated and
the latest forecast now makes Estelle post-tropical by 96 hours,
which is a little faster than before.
Estelle is expected to continue producing rough surf and rip current
conditions along the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico
as well as the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula during
the next several days.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 18/0300Z 16.8N 108.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 17.2N 110.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 17.7N 112.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 19/1200Z 18.1N 114.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 20/0000Z 18.9N 117.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 20/1200Z 19.8N 119.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 21/0000Z 20.8N 121.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 22/0000Z 22.0N 125.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 23/0000Z 23.0N 129.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Papin
NNNN