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Hurricane Estelle Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
300 PM MDT Sun Jul 17 2022
Estelle has changed little in organization since this morning.
There is an apparent dry slot near the core of the circulation,
which is possibly inhibiting further intensification for the time
being. The anticyclonic outflow, banding features, and cold cloud
tops remain intact, however. Dvorak satellite intensity estimates
from TAFB and SAB are still 77 kt and 65 kt, respectively. Given
no changes to these estimates and the overall satellite appearance,
the initial intensity is kept at 75 kt.
The cyclone is expected to be in an atmospheric and oceanic
environment conducive for further strengthening during the next day
or so. Statistical guidance still shows the possibility of rapid
intensification in 24 hours and the official forecast remains above
all dynamical guidance through 48 hours. Thereafter, vertical wind
shear over Estelle is predicted to increase, and in 72 hours sea
surface temperatures begin to decrease significantly. This effect
should result in a fairly rapid rate of weakening.
Estelle continues moving west-northwestward at around 10 kt on the
southern periphery of a mid-level ridge. This synoptic feature is
expected to continue to steer the hurricane in the same general
direction for the next several days. The official forecast is
practically the same as the previous NHC track and again follows the
multi-model consensus, TVCE, closely.
The main coastal impact from Estelle is expected to be rough surf
and the potential for rip currents along the coast of southwestern
and west-central Mexico as well as the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula during the next day or two.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 17/2100Z 16.1N 107.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 16.7N 109.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 17.3N 111.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 17.7N 114.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 18.3N 116.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 20/0600Z 19.2N 118.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 20/1800Z 20.3N 121.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 21/1800Z 21.9N 125.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 22/1800Z 22.8N 128.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci
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