ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Storm Estelle Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
1000 AM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022
Estelle has continued to strengthen this morning. Earlier passive
microwave imagery indicated the vortex was slightly tilted in the
vertical, likely due to 10-15 kt of deep-layer northeasterly shear
over the small cyclone. The mid-level eye feature was still open on
the upshear side, but recent satellite trends show an expanding
central dense overcast with -75 to -80 deg C cloud tops spreading
over its center. The 12 UTC objective and subjective satellite
estimates were all at 55 kt, but given the recent improved satellite
presentation and an uptick in the ADT estimates, the advisory
intensity is set at 60 kt.
Further strengthening is expected as Estelle moves within a moist
and unstable environment over very warm SSTs. Of course, this
assumes that Estelle is able to close off its inner core to help
resist the negative effects of continued moderate (10-15 kt)
deep-layer shear. The latest intensity guidance unanimously supports
at least steady strengthening over the next 24-36 h, and SHIPS/LGEM
favor rapid intensification (RI) with some indications that the
shear could weaken a bit later today. The NHC intensity forecast is
higher than the previous one and explicitly forecasts RI, generally
between the multi-model consensus and the most aggressive SHIPS/LGEM
aids. Estelle is expected to become a hurricane later today, and it
is forecast to become a major hurricane by early Monday. Later next
week, increasing shear and decreasing SSTs along its track should
lead to a weakening trend on days 3-5.
Estelle is moving west-northwestward (295 degrees) at 9 kt. A
mid-level ridge entrenched over the southwestern U.S. should keep
steering Estelle west-northwestward during the next several days.
There is increased spread in the track guidance on days 3-5, with
the GFS on the far northern edge of the guidance envelope and the
ECWMF and UKMET faster and much farther south. The NHC track
forecast is nudged just a bit south of the previous one in the
extended range, but still lies slightly to the north of the TVCE and
HCCA aids.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 16/1500Z 14.0N 103.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 14.6N 104.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 15.3N 106.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 16.0N 108.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 18/1200Z 16.7N 110.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 19/0000Z 17.2N 112.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 19/1200Z 17.8N 115.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 20/1200Z 19.5N 120.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 21/1200Z 21.2N 124.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
NNNN