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Tropical Depression Six-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
400 PM CDT Fri Jul 15 2022
Metop-B and -C scatterometer data today show the depression has a
well-defined surface circulation with a couple areas of 25-30 kt
winds to the north and northeast of its center. Overall, the deep
convection has become more fragmented this afternoon, although there
is new convective development near its center noted in recent
visible and infrared satellite imagery. Based on the scatterometer
winds, the initial intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory.
The center of the depression has been relocated about 20-30 n mi
northeast of previous estimates based on scatterometer winds and
microwave data, and its initial motion is northwestward at 315/7 kt.
However, it is expected to resume a more west-northwestward heading
by tonight as it becomes steered by a mid-level ridge well to its
north. This track should keep the cyclone well offshore of
southwestern Mexico as it moves roughly parallel to the coast during
the next couple of days. The cyclone is forecast to continue
west-northwestward with a slight increase in forward speed on days
3-5 as the steering ridge remains entrenched to its north. The
latest NHC track forecast has been adjusted to the right of the
previous one, largely a product of the center relocation and
its effect on the near-term track.
Strengthening is expected during the next several days as the
atmospheric and oceanic conditions are favorable along its track.
Very warm SSTs, abundant mid-level moisture, and weak to moderate
deep-layer northeasterly shear should provide a conducive
environment for intensification through early next week, and the
system is forecast to become a hurricane by early Sunday. The SHIPS
guidance continues to highlight the potential for some significant
strengthening, and the official NHC forecast remains on the high end
of the guidance between SHIPS and the IVCN consensus aid. The
deep-layer shear is forecast to increase by 72-96 h, and this
combined with cooler SSTs should cause weakening by days 4-5.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/2100Z 13.0N 100.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 13.4N 102.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 14.1N 103.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 14.9N 105.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 17/1800Z 15.6N 106.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 18/0600Z 16.3N 108.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 18/1800Z 17.0N 110.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 19/1800Z 18.5N 115.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 20/1800Z 20.5N 120.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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