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Hurricane Darby Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022
1100 PM HST Sun Jul 10 2022
Darby continues to improve in organization tonight and appears to
be on a strengthening trend. Satellite imagery shows that the
cloud pattern has become more symmetric and the small hurricane may
be trying to form a clear eye. Subjective and objective satellite
intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW/CIMSS increased to 65
kt, 77 kt, and 80 kt, respectively. The initial intensity is
increased to 75 kt representing a blend of these estimates.
Low vertical wind shear and warm ocean waters make up the conducive
environmental conditions for Darby to strengthen. The system is
expect to remain in an environment supportive of further
intensification for the next day or so. Statistical guidance, such
as DTOPS, show a higher potential for rapid intensification in the
next 24 hours. Thereafter, the hurricane should reach cooler waters
and begin to weaken. The NHC intensity forecast is slightly higher
than the previous advisory in the short-term forecast due to the
recent strengthening. It remains above most of the model guidance
early in the forecast period, and close to the consensus after a
couple of days.
The hurricane is moving west at 14 kt. Darby is being steered by a
mid-level ridge to its north and should continue westward for the
next couple of days. Then, the system should turn
west-northwestward as it moves around the southwestern periphery of
the ridge. The official track forecast has been shifted south of
the previous NHC prediction but not as far south as the model
consensus. It is also slower than the consensus aids, favoring the
GFS and ECMWF over the UKMET which seems to be unrealistically fast.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/0900Z 14.5N 121.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 14.6N 124.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 12/0600Z 14.8N 126.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 12/1800Z 15.0N 129.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 13/0600Z 15.4N 131.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 13/1800Z 15.8N 134.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 14/0600Z 16.4N 137.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 15/0600Z 17.4N 142.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 16/0600Z 17.8N 147.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci
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