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Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 42
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
800 PM PDT Sun Jun 26 2022
Unexpectedly, the satellite presentation of Celia has improved this
evening. A recent SSMIS microwave pass revealed a distinct mid-level
eye with a ring of deep convection surrounding the center of the
cyclone. Infrared cloud top temperatures near and over the center
have cooled during the past several hours, and overall the cloud
pattern appears more organized than earlier today. The initial
intensity is set at 50 kt based on a blend of the objective SATCON
estimate (46 kt) and consensus T3.5/55 kt Dvorak classifications
from SAB and TAFB.
Celia is still moving west-northwestward, or 300/7 kt, as it is
steered by a mid-level ridge that extends over the eastern North
Pacific. This general motion is expected to continue during the next
several days until Celia dissipates. The track guidance is still
tightly clustered, and the latest NHC track forecast remains very
close to the HCCA and TVCE consensus aids.
Despite the recent uptick in intensity, Celia is still expected to
weaken during the next few days as it moves over cooler waters and
into a drier, more stable environment. Model-simulated satellite
imagery suggests that Celia will struggle to maintain deep organized
convection by Tuesday, and so the NHC forecast still calls for the
cyclone to become post-tropical in 36 h. Then, the system will
continue weakening as it gradually spins down over sub-22 deg C
waters. By late Thursday, the remnant low is forecast to open into a
trough and dissipate.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/0300Z 20.0N 115.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 20.6N 116.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 21.3N 118.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 22.1N 120.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 29/0000Z 22.9N 122.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 29/1200Z 23.4N 124.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 30/0000Z 23.9N 125.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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