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Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
300 PM MDT Thu Jun 23 2022
Celia finally looks like a non-sheared tropical storm. The
low-level center is now embedded beneath a burst of convection that
began earlier this morning, and convective banding is becoming more
pronounced. There's quite a large range of intensity estimates--
from 30 to 45 kt--but given the improved structure, the initial
intensity remains 45 kt at the top of that range. With its improved
structure, Celia should be able to take advantage of low deep-layer
shear and waters warmer than 26 degrees Celsius for strengthening
over the next couple of days. The NHC intensity forecast still
shows Celia becoming a hurricane and most closely follows SHIPS,
COAMPS-TC, and HCCA at the higher end of the guidance. Gradual
weakening is anticipated after 48 hours as the cyclone moves over
cooler waters, and Celia is forecast to degenerate into a remnant
low by day 5.
Celia has turned back to the west-northwest (300 degrees) at a
slightly slower speed of 10 kt. Mid-tropospheric ridging across
the southern United States and northern Mexico is expected to
expand westward over the next few days, keeping Celia on a
west-northwestward course until lower-level winds turn the remnant
low to the west by day 5. The steering currents do weaken a bit,
however, and Celia could be moving around 5 kt in about 36 hours.
The track guidance has slowed down during the middle to latter part
of the forecast, and the updated NHC forecast is therefore also a
little slower than the morning forecast. There is no change to
Celia's predicted trajectory, however.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/2100Z 16.4N 106.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 16.8N 108.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 17.1N 109.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 17.4N 110.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 17.9N 111.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 26/0600Z 18.6N 112.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 19.3N 114.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 20.5N 118.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 28/1800Z 21.1N 123.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Berg
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