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Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
400 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022
The organization of Celia has deteriorated this morning. The
low-level center is completely exposed to the north of a
ragged-looking area of convection. This unexpected separation of
the low-level center, apparently due to the northerly shear, implies
that there has been no increase of intensity since yesterday. The
initial wind speed is held at 45 kt and given the current
appearance of the system, this may even be a generous intensity
estimate.
Celia has taken a northwestward jog over the past 6 to 12 hours.
This is potentially due to the sheared vortex structure. The storm
is expected to become more vertically coupled and resume a
west-northwestward track beginning later today. The longer-term
motion should be governed by the mid-level high pressure system and
associated ridge to the north and northeast of Celia. The new NHC
track forecast is shifted slightly northward on a account of the
recent more northward movement of the cyclone. This is in close
agreement with the model consensus.
The global dynamical models forecast some decrease in the
vertical wind shear, which should allow for gradual intensification
of the storm. However, global models do maintain a moderate
level of shear and this, along with cooler SSTs within the
next day or two, could limit strengthening. The official intensity
forecast is a little above most of the model guidance.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/0900Z 15.5N 105.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 16.3N 106.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 16.9N 108.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 24/1800Z 17.2N 109.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 25/0600Z 17.5N 110.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 25/1800Z 18.2N 111.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 26/0600Z 19.1N 113.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 27/0600Z 20.3N 117.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 28/0600Z 21.3N 121.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci
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