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Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
1000 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022
Celia has changed little in organization since the last advisory,
with the low-level center exposed just to the northeast of the main
convective area by the effects of 15-20 kt of northeasterly shear.
Various satellite intensity intensity estimates are in the 40-55 kt
range, and since there are no significant changes in these since
the last advisory the initial intensity is held at 45 kt.
The center has turned to the right during the last several hours,
and the initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 305/6. This
northwestward jog is expected to be relatively short-lived, and
Celia is expected to resume a west-northwestward track during the
next 12-24 h on the south side of a large mid- to upper-level
ridge, with the general motion continuing for the remainder f the
forecast period. The new forecast track is similar to the previous
forecast, although it has a slightly more northward motion than the
previous forecast during the first 24-36 h. The new forecast track
is also close to the various consensus models.
The shear is forecast to decrease during the next 12-18 h, and with
Celia remaining over warm water this should allow intensification
to a hurricane in about 36 h. The cyclone should peak in intensity
between 48-60 h, then weaken as it moves over decreasing sea
surface temperatures after that time. The new intensity forecast
is unchanged from the previous forecast, and the forecast peak
intensity of 75 kt is near the upper edge of the intensity guidance.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/0300Z 14.2N 104.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 14.9N 105.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 15.7N 107.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 16.2N 108.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 16.8N 109.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 25/1200Z 17.4N 110.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 26/0000Z 18.1N 112.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 27/0000Z 19.5N 116.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 28/0000Z 20.5N 120.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
$$
Forecaster Beven
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