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Tropical Depression Celia Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 18 2022
Celia remains a small, shallow vortex with almost no convection
just off the coasts of Guatemala and El Salvador. The initial
intensity remains at 25 kts based on the earlier scatterometer pass
and the subjective Dvorak estimate from SAB.
Celia is moving westward this evening at about 5 kt, after drifting
slightly further north. Track guidance is tightly clustered and
suggests the system will turn to the west-southwest and move faster
as it moves around a mid-level ridge to the north. The track
guidance this cycle is quite similar to the previous advisory, with
only a slight southward shift of the NHC track at the end of the
forecast period.
Easterly shear continues to inhibit any convective organization
this evening. High to moderate shear is expected for the next
several days which will limit any potential intensification. While
the intensity forecast continues to show little change in strength
over the next 48 hours, it remains possible that Celia could
briefly degenerate as a tropical cyclone or reform further west
closer to more widespread convection. Later in the forecast period,
the vertical wind shear should relax and environmental conditions
are expected to allow for some gradual development. The intensity
forecast is similar to the previous NHC forecast and is below the
model consensus IVCN.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/0300Z 13.0N 90.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 12.8N 91.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 20/0000Z 12.5N 93.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 20/1200Z 12.2N 94.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 21/0000Z 12.1N 96.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
60H 21/1200Z 12.4N 98.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 22/0000Z 12.9N 100.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 23/0000Z 13.9N 104.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 24/0000Z 15.3N 107.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
$$
Forecaster Bucci/Blake
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