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Tropical Depression Celia Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
1000 AM CDT Sat Jun 18 2022
After exhibiting a mostly exposed low-level swirl on overnight
satellite imagery, this morning a small but deep burst of
convection has formed just to the west of the center of Celia. Yet,
this activity does not have much organization and already appears
to be impacted by significant easterly vertical wind shear over the
system currently. Morning satellite intensity estimates from TAFB
and SAB are at 35 kt and 30 kt, with objective estimates from ADT
and SATCON at 25 kt and 36 kt respectively. The initial intensity
will remain 30 kt for this advisory.
Celia's long awaited left turn appears to be underway, with the
motion now at 290/4 kt. A building ridge to the north of Celia
should continue this westward turn in its track as the deep-layer
steering flow vector shifts out of the east. In general, a westward
motion is anticipated through the forecast period, though with a
more southward inflection over the next 48 hours, and a more
northward inflection thereafter. The new forecast track is just a
touch north of the various consensus aids (TVCE, HCCA) and is
changed little from the previous forecast.
Greater than 20 kt of easterly shear is forecast to continue
affecting Celia for at least the next 36-48 hours. For this primary
reason, the depression is expected to only maintain its intensity,
and it is quite possible the center may become stretched-out or
reform down-shear to the west where the deep-convective activity
should remain focused. After 48 hours, the easterly shear is
forecast to gradually subside, and Celia could have an opportunity
to intensify. The intensity forecast is essentially a carbon copy of
the previous one, and is in general agreement with the consensus
aids.
Key Messages:
1. Areas of heavy rainfall are expected north of Celia's track
across portions of far southern Mexico, Guatemala and El Salvador
through Sunday. This rainfall may cause some instances of flash
flooding and mudslides across the region.
2. Interests along the coasts of El Salvador, Honduras, and
southeastern Mexico should continue to monitor the progress of this
system, although the chances of direct wind impacts continue to
decrease.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 18/1500Z 12.8N 90.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 12.8N 90.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 12.5N 91.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 12.1N 93.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 12.0N 95.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 21/0000Z 12.2N 97.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 21/1200Z 12.5N 99.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 22/1200Z 13.5N 103.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 23/1200Z 15.0N 106.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
$$
Forecaster Papin
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