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Tropical Depression Three-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
1000 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022
There has not been much change in the organization of the
depression over the past several hours. The system is
producing a small area of very deep convection mainly over the
southern portion of the circulation, but banding features are not
very well-defined at this time. Subjective Dvorak intensity
estimates from TAFB and SAB are still below tropical storm strength
so the cyclone's intensity is maintained at 30 kt for this advisory.
Center fixes from satellite images suggest only a very slow
movement and the current motion estimate is about 350/2 kt. The
system is in an environment of weak steering currents, as it
remains under the influence of a low-level cyclonic gyre over
Central America. This scenario should continue to prevail for the
next day or so, so a slow motion is forecast through 36 hours.
Thereafter, a mid-tropospheric ridge is forecast by the global
models to build to the north of the tropical cyclone, which should
induce a more westward motion in 2-5 days. The track guidance has
shifted somewhat to the left compared to the previous advisory
package, and the official forecast is shifted a little southwest of
the previous NHC prediction. The simple and corrected consensus
tracks are even farther to the left, so some additional adjustments
may be needed in subsequent forecasts.
The cyclone is in a generally conducive atmospheric environment
with high humidity and fairly low shear. However the presence of
a shallow oceanic mixed layer over the far eastern Pacific could
cause the slow-moving system to be influenced by the upwelling of
cooler waters. Therefore only modest strengthening is anticipated
during the next day or so, as in the previous NHC forecast. The
dynamical guidance indicates an increase in easterly shear in a
couple of days, which is expected to limit strengthening. The
official intensity forecast is near or a little above the simple
and corrected consensus predictions, IVCN and HCCA respectively.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 17/0300Z 11.1N 90.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 17/1200Z 11.3N 90.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 18/0000Z 11.8N 90.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 18/1200Z 12.4N 90.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 19/0000Z 12.7N 91.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 19/1200Z 12.7N 92.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 20/0000Z 12.5N 93.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 21/0000Z 12.4N 96.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 22/0000Z 13.0N 101.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
$$
Forecaster Pasch
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