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Tropical Depression Three-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
400 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022
Over the past 12 h, there has been a notable improvement on
satellite of the convective structure with an area of low pressure
NHC has been monitoring to the south of the coasts of El Salvador
and Guatemala. An earlier scatterometer pass showed that the system
had developed a well-defined center, with maximum winds between
25-30 kt. These winds also matched a nearby ship observation in the
northern semicircle of the system. Subsequent visible satellite
imagery depicted convection gradually increasing near the
circulation center, especially in a curved band on its western
side. This improving structure is also seen well on a recently
arriving AMSR2 microwave pass. For these reasons, the system now
meets the criteria of a tropical cyclone, and the initial intensity
will be set to 30 kt for this advisory.
Three-E has been making a slow cyclonic loop over the past 24 hours,
and now appears to be drifting northward, estimated at 355/2 kt. The
track guidance in the short-term is rather tricky, as the steering
currents near the system appear to be light and variable, with the
largest steering influence expected to be monsoonal flow around a
larger-scale circulation over Central America involving another
disturbance over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. The track guidance
is rather spread out over the first couple of days with the ECMWF on
the left side and GFS on right side of the track guidance envelope.
After 36 hours, a mid-level ridge is expected to gradually build in
to the north of the cyclone, resulting in a gradual bend westward
and some increase in forward motion. The initial track forecast
currently lies near the center of the track suite, close to the HFIP
Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA).
Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for some
intensification over the next day or so, with shear under 10 kt,
high mid-level moisture, and sea-surface temperatures above 27 C.
However, easterly shear is expected to increase after 36 hours, and
the slow motion of the system may leave it susceptible to upwelling
cooler waters under a fairly shallow mixed layer depth of warm
waters in the far East Pacific. The initial intensity forecast only
shows a peak intensity of 45 kt in 36 hours and holds the system at
that intensity for the remainder of the period. This intensity
forecast roughly splits the difference between higher
statistical-dynamical guidance (SHIPS) versus lower dynamical and
consensus aids (HMON, IVCN). Given the uncertainty in the short-term
track of this depression, this intensity forecast is of relatively
low confidence.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 16/2100Z 10.8N 89.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 11.1N 89.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 17/1800Z 11.5N 89.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 18/0600Z 12.2N 89.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 18/1800Z 12.8N 90.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 19/0600Z 12.9N 91.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 19/1800Z 12.9N 91.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 20/1800Z 12.9N 94.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 21/1800Z 12.8N 99.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
$$
Forecaster Papin
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