ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Hurricane Blas Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022
300 AM MDT Fri Jun 17 2022
Conventional satellite imagery and earlier GMI and SSMI/S microwave
images indicated that the location of Blas' center was near the
northern edge of the deep convective mass. Evidently, the
northeasterly shear persists and impinges on the north portion of
the cloud pattern. The subjective Dvorak satellite intensity
estimates from TAFB and SAB remain unchanged, and the initial
intensity is, once again, held at 75 kt.
Blas is expected to move over cooler oceanic sea surface
temperatures and into a high statically stable thermodynamic
surrounding environment during the next few days. Gradual
weakening is then forecast through the remainder of the period.
The official intensity forecast has changed little from the previous
one and sides with the HCCA and IVCN multi-model intensity
forecasts.
The microwave passes showed Blas a little north of the previous
advisory position, and the initial motion is estimated to be
west-northwestward, or 295/11 kt. Blas is embedded in the
east-southeasterly steering flow generated by a mid-tropospheric
ridge extending from northern Mexico into the eastern North Pacific
ocean. Some strengthening of the ridge should cause Blas to
increase forward speed today. A weaker, more vertically shallow
cyclone will likely turn westward in the low-level easterlies by
early next week. Only minor along-track adjustments were made
to the new track forecast, and a blend of the HCCA and TVCE were
used as a basis.
While Blas is moving farther away from the coast of Mexico, its
associated swells are affecting portions of the coast of
southwestern Mexico and are expected to spread to parts of the
southern Baja California peninsula later today. These swells are
likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions in those
areas through the weekend.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 17/0900Z 17.0N 107.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 17/1800Z 17.6N 109.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 18/0600Z 18.1N 111.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 18/1800Z 18.4N 112.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 19/0600Z 18.5N 113.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 19/1800Z 18.4N 114.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 20/0600Z 18.3N 115.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 21/0600Z 18.4N 118.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 22/0600Z 18.4N 119.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Roberts
NNNN