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Tropical Storm Agatha Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012022
400 AM CDT Tue May 31 2022
Agatha's deep convection is becoming oriented in lines to the east
and south of the mid-level center of rotation, extending across the
waters of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Assuming a fast rate of wind
decay over the mountainous terrain of southern Mexico, Agatha's
current intensity is estimated to be 40 kt. The initial motion
remains northeastward (045/7 kt), which will take Agatha farther
inland over southeastern Mexico today. A 12-hour remnant low point
is provided in the forecast for continuity, but it's likely that the
rugged terrain will cause Agatha to dissipate by this afternoon.
Global model guidance continues to suggest that Agatha's remnants
will become absorbed by a larger low-level cyclonic gyre over
southeastern Mexico during the next couple of days, with that new
system having development potential over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea and southeastern Gulf of Mexico by late this week. Please see
NHC's Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook for more details.
Regardless of new development, Agatha's remnants and the larger gyre
will continue to cause heavy rains and potentially life-threatening
flash floods over portions of southeastern Mexico over the next day
or two.
Key Messages:
1. Heavy rains associated with Agatha will continue over portions of
southern Mexico through tonight. This will pose a threat of
potentially life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.
2. Tropical storm conditions, especially in squalls, will continue
within the warning area through this morning.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 31/0900Z 16.8N 95.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
12H 31/1800Z 17.2N 95.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
24H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Berg
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