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Tropical Depression Terry Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182021
800 AM MST Mon Nov 08 2021
Terry has become less organized since yesterday and it appears
that this is the from a combination of mid-level shear and the
entrainment of some drier and more stable air from the north.
Early light-visible satellite imagery reveals a couple of linear
lines of deep convection, but the low cloud motion suggests that
the circulation may be less defined. The initial intensity has
been lowered to 30 kt, and is based on earlier scatterometer data
and a TAFB Dvorak classification of T2.0. Hopefully the ASCAT
instrument will provide data over the system this afternoon to
determine if a well-defined center still exists.
Terry is moving west-northwestward or 290/13 kt. The track
forecast reasoning remains unchanged as a well-established strong
deep-layer ridge to the north of Terry is expected to steer
the cyclone westward to west-northwestward during the next few
days. The dynamical model guidance is in agreement on this
scenario but the updated NHC track forecast has been adjusted
slightly northward to be closer to the various consensus aids.
The mid-level shear that has been plaguing Terry is forecast to
continue during the next day or two. This is likely to result in
some additional weakening during that time. Although some of the
guidance suggests that Terry could reach a more favorable
environment later in the period, the current structure of the
system suggests that there will not be enough left of the cyclone
to take advantage of that. Therefore, the NHC forecast continues
to follow the ECMWF and UKMET models which depict weakening and
dissipation by day 4. It is possible that Terry will loose
tropical cyclone status much sooner, either due to a lack of
organized convection or loss of a well-defined center.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/1500Z 10.1N 106.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 10.6N 108.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 11.2N 111.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 11.4N 113.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 11.5N 116.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
60H 11/0000Z 11.5N 118.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 11.3N 121.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Brown
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