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Tropical Depression Terry Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182021
800 AM MST Mon Nov 08 2021
 
Terry has become less organized since yesterday and it appears 
that this is the from a combination of mid-level shear and the 
entrainment of some drier and more stable air from the north.  
Early light-visible satellite imagery reveals a couple of linear 
lines of deep convection, but the low cloud motion suggests that 
the circulation may be less defined.  The initial intensity has 
been lowered to 30 kt, and is based on earlier scatterometer data 
and a TAFB Dvorak classification of T2.0.  Hopefully the ASCAT 
instrument will provide data over the system this afternoon to 
determine if a well-defined center still exists. 

Terry is moving west-northwestward or 290/13 kt.  The track 
forecast reasoning remains unchanged as a well-established strong 
deep-layer ridge to the north of Terry is expected to steer 
the cyclone westward to west-northwestward during the next few 
days.  The dynamical model guidance is in agreement on this 
scenario but the updated NHC track forecast has been adjusted 
slightly northward to be closer to the various consensus aids. 

The mid-level shear that has been plaguing Terry is forecast to 
continue during the next day or two.  This is likely to result in 
some additional weakening during that time.  Although some of the 
guidance suggests that Terry could reach a more favorable 
environment later in the period, the current structure of the 
system suggests that there will not be enough left of the cyclone 
to take advantage of that.  Therefore, the NHC forecast continues 
to follow the ECMWF and UKMET models which depict weakening and 
dissipation by day 4.  It is possible that Terry will loose 
tropical cyclone status much sooner, either due to a lack of 
organized convection or loss of a well-defined center. 

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/1500Z 10.1N 106.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  09/0000Z 10.6N 108.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  09/1200Z 11.2N 111.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  10/0000Z 11.4N 113.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  10/1200Z 11.5N 116.1W   25 KT  30 MPH
 60H  11/0000Z 11.5N 118.9W   25 KT  30 MPH
 72H  11/1200Z 11.3N 121.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  12/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 
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