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Hurricane Pamela Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021
300 AM MDT Wed Oct 13 2021
Although Dvorak satellite intensity estimates have not changed,
recent imagery indicates that the center is more involved
with the deep convection than it was earlier, suggesting that at
least some strengthening has taken place. Moreover, an excellent
ASCAT-B scatterometer pass from around 0500 UTC showed a couple of
53 to 54 kt wind vectors, which is likely an undersampling of the
peak intensity. On this basis, the estimated intensity of Pamela
is increased slightly to 65 kt, so the system is once again a
hurricane. Since the tropical cyclone is close to landfall and the
upper-level winds are not conducive for much more strengthening,
little change in intensity is likely until the center crosses the
coast. Rapid weakening will occur after the center moves inland,
and the official forecast may be a little on the high side given
the mountainous terrain that the system will traverse.
Center fixes from geostationary imagery and the scatterometer
indicate that Pamela is now moving faster toward the northeast, or
at about 045/12 kt. Additional acceleration is expected during the
next 12 to 24 hours while the cyclone is embedded in the deep-layer
southwesterly flow between a ridge over the western Gulf of Mexico
and a broad trough over the west-central United States. The
official forecast track has been shifted a little to the southeast
of the previous one, but still moves Pamela across the coast of
Mexico withing the Hurricane Warning area this morning. Later
today and tonight, the rapidly weakening cyclone should move
over central and northern Mexico. By 36 hours, the global models
show the system losing its identity. The official forecast track
is close to the simple and corrected consensus model solutions.
Although Pamela is likely to dissipate over the rugged terrain of
Mexico, deep moisture associated with the system's remnants
are likely to spread over north-central and northeastern Mexico on
Wednesday, and then move into portions of the south-central United
States later today or Thursday.
Key Messages:
1. Pamela is forecast to make landfall on the west-central coast of
Mexico this morning, and life-threatening storm surge and dangerous
hurricane-force winds are expected within the Hurricane Warning
area. Residents in this area should follow any advice given by
local officials.
2. Heavy rains associated with Pamela are expected to continue to
move into the Mexican States of Sinaloa and western Durango today.
This will pose a threat of significant and life-threatening flash
flooding and mudslides.
3. Heavy rains associated with the remnants of Pamela are expected
across portions of central Texas and southeastern Oklahoma later
today or Thursday. This may result in considerable flash and urban
flooding impacts.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 13/0900Z 22.8N 107.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 24.5N 105.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
24H 14/0600Z 27.4N 101.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Pasch
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