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Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021
1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021
The depression is gradually getting better organized this morning,
as a large mass of deep convection with clouds tops colder than -80
degrees C has developed over the cyclone's center. The initial
advisory is held at 30 kt for this advisory and is based on the
latest Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB.
The initial motion of the depression is 290/15 kt. This
west-northwestward motion is forecast to continue through tonight as
the cyclone moves along the southern periphery of a mid-tropospheric
ridge located over Mexico. Early this week, a short-wave trough is
expected to dig southward over the western United States and
northern Mexico which would produce a weakness in the ridge. This
should cause the cyclone to make a gradual turn to the north Monday
through Tuesday night, with a northeastward motion expected by
Wednesday. The track model guidance is in very good agreement on
this scenario and the latest NHC forecast track is little changed
from the previous one. Based on the forecast track, the center of
the cyclone should pass near or south of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula Tuesday night or early Wednesday, then
reach the coast of west-central mainland Mexico Wednesday night or
early Thursday.
The recent increase in convection over the cyclone's center suggests
that a bout of intensification is soon to get underway, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today. The
environment surrounding the depression is ideal for strengthening
over the next 2 to 3 days, and it is possible that the system could
undergo a period of rapid intensification (RI) during that time. The
latest GFS-SHIPS RI guidance continues to indicate a greater than 40
percent chance of a 65-kt increase in strength over the next 72 h.
Based on a blend of the latest HCCA and IVCN intensity solutions and
the SHIPS RI guidance, the latest NHC intensity forecast is similar
to the previous one, indicating the cyclone reaching 95 kt in 72 h.
Although not explicitly shown in the forecast, the system could
become a major hurricane before reaching the coast of mainland
Mexico.
Key Messages:
1. The tropical cyclone is forecast to be at or near major hurricane
intensity when it reaches the coast of west-central mainland Mexico
by late Wednesday or early Thursday, and could bring
life-threatening storm surge, flash flooding, and dangerous winds to
a portion of that area. Residents in this area should monitor the
progress of this system and ensure they have their hurricane plan in
place.
2. The tropical cyclone is expected to pass near or south of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula as a hurricane Tuesday
night or Wednesday, and could bring strong winds and heavy rainfall
to the extreme southern portion of the peninsula. Watches could be
required for portions of this area tonight or early Monday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/1500Z 14.8N 104.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 15.4N 106.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 16.0N 108.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 17.1N 109.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 18.4N 110.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 13/0000Z 19.9N 109.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 13/1200Z 21.8N 109.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 14/1200Z 26.3N 105.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
120H 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Latto
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