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Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162021
1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021
 
The depression is gradually getting better organized this morning, 
as a large mass of deep convection with clouds tops colder than -80 
degrees C has developed over the cyclone's center. The initial 
advisory is held at 30 kt for this advisory and is based on the 
latest Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. 

The initial motion of the depression is 290/15 kt. This 
west-northwestward motion is forecast to continue through tonight as 
the cyclone moves along the southern periphery of a mid-tropospheric 
ridge located over Mexico. Early this week, a short-wave trough is 
expected to dig southward over the western United States and 
northern Mexico which would produce a weakness in the ridge. This 
should cause the cyclone to make a gradual turn to the north Monday 
through Tuesday night, with a northeastward motion expected by 
Wednesday. The track model guidance is in very good agreement on 
this scenario and the latest NHC forecast track is little changed 
from the previous one. Based on the forecast track, the center of 
the cyclone should pass near or south of the southern tip of the 
Baja California peninsula Tuesday night or early Wednesday, then 
reach the coast of west-central mainland Mexico Wednesday night or 
early Thursday.
 
The recent increase in convection over the cyclone's center suggests 
that a bout of intensification is soon to get underway, and the 
depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today. The 
environment surrounding the depression is ideal for strengthening 
over the next 2 to 3 days, and it is possible that the system could 
undergo a period of rapid intensification (RI) during that time. The 
latest GFS-SHIPS RI guidance continues to indicate a greater than 40 
percent chance of a 65-kt increase in strength over the next 72 h. 
Based on a blend of the latest HCCA and IVCN intensity solutions and 
the SHIPS RI guidance, the latest NHC intensity forecast is similar 
to the previous one, indicating the cyclone reaching 95 kt in 72 h. 
Although not explicitly shown in the forecast, the system could 
become a major hurricane before reaching the coast of mainland 
Mexico.

Key Messages:

1. The tropical cyclone is forecast to be at or near major hurricane 
intensity when it reaches the coast of west-central mainland Mexico 
by late Wednesday or early Thursday, and could bring 
life-threatening storm surge, flash flooding, and dangerous winds to 
a portion of that area.  Residents in this area should monitor the 
progress of this system and ensure they have their hurricane plan in 
place. 


2. The tropical cyclone is expected to pass near or south of the 
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula as a hurricane Tuesday 
night or Wednesday, and could bring strong winds and heavy rainfall 
to the extreme southern portion of the peninsula. Watches could be 
required for portions of this area tonight or early Monday. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/1500Z 14.8N 104.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  11/0000Z 15.4N 106.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  11/1200Z 16.0N 108.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  12/0000Z 17.1N 109.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  12/1200Z 18.4N 110.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  13/0000Z 19.9N 109.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  13/1200Z 21.8N 109.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  14/1200Z 26.3N 105.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
120H  15/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Latto
 
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