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Tropical Storm Linda Discussion Number 41
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP122021
1100 PM HST Thu Aug 19 2021
The clock is ticking on Linda's time as a tropical cyclone.
Infrared satellite imagery indicates a lack of deep convection over
the last 12 to 18 hours, with some cooler cloud tops north of the
low-level center being rapidly ushered away by strong upper-level
winds. A well-timed 0528Z ASCAT pass was the primary reason for
maintaining the initial intensity at 40 kt for this advisory, with
these winds confined to the northern semicircle.
The initial motion estimate is 270/15 kt, with Linda being steered
by a low- to mid-level ridge to the north. The ridge will continue
to steer the system westward, although some slowing in forward speed
is expected Friday and Saturday. The updated track forecast has
changed very little from the previous official forecast, but a
slight southward nudge was made beyond 48 hours, in line with the
latest, tightly-clustered guidance.
Although Linda has rapidly weakened over the last day or so, a much
slower rate of weakening is expected over the next couple of days,
even as Linda becomes post-tropical. This is supported by global
model guidance, as well as the intensity consensus IVCN, which
indicate a gradual spin-down of the low-level cloud swirl, with gale
force winds persisting in the northern semicircle for a couple more
days. The combined effects of cool SSTs, dry air in the mid- and
upper-levels, and strong vertical wind shear will lead to system
dissipation by day 5.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/0900Z 19.9N 142.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 20.3N 144.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 21/0600Z 20.5N 147.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 21/1800Z 20.9N 149.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 22/0600Z 21.1N 151.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 22/1800Z 21.4N 153.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 23/0600Z 21.4N 156.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 24/0600Z 21.5N 161.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Birchard
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