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Tropical Storm Linda Discussion Number 40
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP122021
500 PM HST Thu Aug 19 2021
Linda continues to slowly weaken as evident by the lack of deep
convection associated with the system. A well defined low and mid
level cloud swirl is all that remains. The latest subjective Dvorak
estimates suggest that the cyclone's initial intensity has decreased
to around 40 kt.
Cooler SSTs and a drier and more stable air mass out ahead of the
system should prevent any significant deep convection from returning
over the next couple of days. Therefore, Linda could be declared a
post-tropical low sometime tonight. The low will reach warmer waters
in a couple of days but strong southwesterly shear should inhibit
regeneration of the cyclone, and the low should open up into a
trough early next week. The latest CPHC intensity forecast remains
near the HCCA and IVCN consensus.
Over the past several hours, Linda has been moving slightly north
of due west at around 15 kt. Linda will continue to be steered by
a low-mid level ridge to its north. Thus a general westward motion
is expected for the system until it dissipates in about 5 days.
The latest CPHC track forecast is little changed from the previous
one, and is within the tightly packed track guidance.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/0300Z 19.9N 141.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 20.2N 143.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 21/0000Z 20.5N 146.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 21/1200Z 20.9N 148.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 22/0000Z 21.2N 150.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 22/1200Z 21.5N 153.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 23/0000Z 21.8N 155.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 24/0000Z 22.2N 160.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Burke
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