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Hurricane Linda Discussion Number  33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122021
1100 PM HST Tue Aug 17 2021
 
This evening's satellite presentation indicates that Linda's cloud 
pattern hasn't changed much during the past 6 hours.  The cyclone 
has maintained its impressive annular structure, and the cloud tops 
in the southern semicircle of the eyewall have cooled (-72 to -74C) 
a little again.  The various subjective and objective satellite 
intensity estimates haven't changed from the previous 6-hour 
classifications, and a blend of these data yields an initial 
intensity of 90 kt for this advisory.
  
Gradual weakening should commence soon as the donut-shaped hurricane 
begins moving over sub-25C water within the next 12-24 hours.  The 
GFS model soundings just downstream of Linda show some modest 
westerly shear below 250 mb that could undercut the outflow a bit, 
which would contribute to a more evident weakening trend. With that 
in mind, the official forecast calls for Linda to finally weaken to 
a tropical storm Thursday Night.  Although oceanic temperatures 
begin to increase again north of the Hawaiian Islands, an increase 
in southwesterly shear should prevent regeneration of organized 
convection and, therefore, Linda is forecast to become a 
post-tropical gale by Friday night.  The NHC intensity forecast is 
basically an update of the previous one and is still in best 
agreement with a blend of the statistical GFS SHIPS and the smart 
HCCA multi-model intensity guidance.
 
The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 280/11 kt.  There 
is no significant change to the previous forecast track or 
reasoning.  A well-established subtropical ridge should steer Linda 
in a westward to west-northwestward fashion during the next 5 days. 
The new NHC forecast track is essentially just an extension of the 
previous one and is based primarily on a blend of the TVCN and HCCA 
consensus track guidance. Linda should be crossing into the Central 
Pacific by 48 hours, and is expected to pass to the north of the 
Hawaiian Islands as a post-tropical gale late in the weekend.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  18/0900Z 18.1N 130.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  18/1800Z 18.5N 132.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  19/0600Z 19.4N 135.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  19/1800Z 20.2N 138.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  20/0600Z 20.8N 141.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  20/1800Z 21.2N 144.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  21/0600Z 21.6N 146.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  22/0600Z 22.5N 151.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  23/0600Z 23.3N 156.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 
$$
Forecaster Roberts
 
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