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Hurricane Linda Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021
300 AM MDT Sat Aug 14 2021
Earlier conventional satellite imagery and a F-17/SSMIS microwave
image revealed some deterioration of Linda's eyewall in the
northwest quadrant, and some cooling of the eye. However, the
latest few BD-curve enhanced infrared images show a quickly
developing solid black ring of -69 to -73C temperatures associated
with Linda's eye wall. Based on these recent convective trends and
a special Dvorak satellite intensity classification from TAFB, the
initial intensity is raised to 110 kt.
Little change in strength is expected today, other than some
possible slight fluctuations. By early Sunday, the hurricane
should be moving over gradually decreasing sea surface temperatures
and into a more stable and drier (700-500 mb relative humidity of
about 53 percent) thermodynamic surrounding environment. These
inhibiting conditions are expected to induce a steady weakening
trend through day 3. Beyond that period, Linda should weaken more
rapidly as it moves over even cooler (sub 24C) oceanic temperatures.
The official intensity forecast is merely an update of the previous
advisory, and is in best agreement with the various multi-model
intensity consensus guidance.
The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 300/11
kt. The forecast track philosophy remains unchanged. Linda is
forecast to move generally west-northwestward to westward during
the next couple of days along the southern periphery of a
subtropical ridge to the north. Afterward, the deterministic
models unanimously show the aforementioned ridge establishing
farther west over the eastern Pacific and to the northwest of the
cyclone. As a result of this altering synoptic steering pattern,
Linda is forecast to turn west-southwestward by early next week.
The NHC track forecast lies close to the TVCN and HFIP Corrected
Consensus Approach aids and splits the difference between the GFS
and ECMWF solutions beyond day 3.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/0900Z 18.4N 114.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 19.0N 116.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 19.3N 118.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 19.2N 120.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 18.9N 122.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 16/1800Z 18.3N 124.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 17/0600Z 18.0N 126.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 18/0600Z 18.3N 130.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 19/0600Z 19.9N 134.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
$$
Forecaster Roberts
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