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HURRICANE LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122021
900 PM MDT FRI AUG 13 2021
Enhanced BD-curve infrared satellite imagery shows that Linda's
inner core has become much better organized during the past few
hours. The eye temperature has warmed to about 13c and the eyewall
temperatures have cooled to -66 to -69c, and in fact, this thick
black ring is a little more than 80 percent closed. Based on these
inner cloud pattern improvements, the initial intensity for this
advisory is adjusted up to 105 kt.
Linda still has a chance through early saturday to strengthen some
more, and this is indicated in the forecast. By Saturday night,
Linda is expected to move over decreasing oceanic temperatures
(25-26c) and enter a more stable and drier thermodynamic
surrounding environment. These inhibiting contributions should
induce a steady weakening trend through day 3. For the remaining
portion of the forecast, the cyclone should weaken a little more
rapidly as it moves over even cooler (sub 24c) sea surface
temperatures. The NHC intensity forecast is based on a blend of
the NOAA HCCA and IVCN consensus aids, and is just below the
decay SHIPS model.
The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 300/11
kt. Linda is forecast to move in a west-northwestward to westward
motion during the next couple of days. Afterward, the large-scale
models show a mid-tropospheric high pressure anchored over the
southwestern united states building westward over the eastern
pacific and to the northwest of the cyclone. In response to the
changing synoptic steering pattern, Linda is expected to turn
west-southwestward by early next week. The official track forecast
has not changed much at all, and closely follows the better
performing TVCN multi-model consensus.
Slight adjustments were made to Linda's wind radii based on earlier
METOP-A and B scatterometer overpasses.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/0300Z 17.9N 113.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 18.5N 115.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 19.1N 117.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 19.2N 120.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 18.9N 121.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 16/1200Z 18.5N 123.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 17/0000Z 18.1N 125.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 18/0000Z 18.1N 129.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 19/0000Z 19.5N 134.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
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