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Tropical Storm Kevin Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112021
900 AM MDT Tue Aug 10 2021
 
Kevin remains a sheared tropical cyclone, with the bulk of the deep 
convection located southwest of its center, while the center 
itself was exposed for a few hours earlier this morning. The 
structure of the cyclone has changed little since yesterday, and 
remains somewhat elongated. The estimated initial intensity is 
being held at 40 kt, using a blend of the latest Dvorak T-numbers 
from TAFB and SAB. 
 
Kevin continues to make its jog to the northwest, and the initial 
motion is 315/08 kt. A general northwestward to west-northwestward 
motion is expected over the next several days as Kevin moves along 
the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer ridge.  Model guidance 
has continued to make a gradual shift to the north for the past 
several runs, and thus the latest NHC track forecast has been 
nudged a little northward as well, lying just south of the 
consensus models.  
 
Moderate to strong northeasterly wind shear is forecast to persist 
over Kevin for the next 24 h, which should limit the cyclone's 
ability to strengthen despite favorable SSTs and abundant mid-level 
moisture. By 24 h, the cyclone will begin to pass over progressively 
cooler waters and into a drier, more stable environment. Based on 
this scenario, the latest NHC intensity forecast shows no change in 
strength through much of tonight, followed by weakening beginning 
Wednesday morning. By 72 h, CMC and ECMWF model simulated 
satellite imagery suggest that Kevin will be devoid of organized 
convection, and so the official NHC forecast shows Kevin as a 
remnant low by that time.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/1500Z 19.1N 114.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  11/0000Z 19.9N 115.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  11/1200Z 21.0N 116.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  12/0000Z 22.1N 118.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  12/1200Z 23.1N 120.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
 60H  13/0000Z 24.1N 122.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
 72H  13/1200Z 25.2N 125.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  14/1200Z 27.2N 128.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  15/1200Z 28.7N 131.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Latto
 
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