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Tropical Storm Kevin Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112021
900 PM MDT Sun Aug 08 2021
 
Satellite images indicate that Kevin has been relatively steady in 
strength over the past several hours.  Deep convection is most 
organized near the center and over the western half of the 
circulation, with microwave images showing the center partially 
exposed. This asymmetric cloud pattern is due to about 15 kt of 
northeasterly wind shear.  The Dvorak classifications from TAFB, 
SAB, and CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin are largely unchanged 
and range from 45 to 55 kt, and based on that data the initial 
intensity is once again held at 50 kt.
 
Kevin is moving westward at a relatively slow pace of 7 kt.  There 
has been little change in the track forecast rationale.  A general 
west-northwestward motion is expected during the next several days 
as Kevin moves in the flow on the southwest side of a mid-level 
ridge.  The track models have trended a little to the north this 
cycle, and the NHC track forecast has been nudged in that direction. 

Despite being over warm 29 degree C waters and embedded in a moist 
air mass, northeasterly shear has limited the amount of 
strengthening during the past day or so.  Since the shear is 
expected to continue, Kevin is only forecast to strengthen slowly 
during the next day or two.  After that time, however, progressively 
cooler waters and a more stable environment should cause a gradual 
decay.  The NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the 
previous one, following the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids.  The 
cyclone will likely become a remnant low by the end of the forecast 
period when it is expected to be over cool 22 C waters.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/0300Z 16.0N 110.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  09/1200Z 16.4N 111.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  10/0000Z 17.2N 112.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  10/1200Z 18.0N 114.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  11/0000Z 18.7N 115.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  11/1200Z 19.6N 117.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  12/0000Z 20.6N 119.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  13/0000Z 22.1N 123.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  14/0000Z 23.5N 128.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
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Forecaster Cangialosi
 
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