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Tropical Storm Kevin Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112021
900 AM MDT Sun Aug 08 2021
 
A burst of deep convection with clouds top temperatures of around
-80C has developed and expanded over the center of Kevin this
morning, however a few microwave overpass have shown that the
center is located near the eastern portion of the convective mass.
Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were
T3.5 (55 kt) at 12Z, with the latest objective estimates from ADT
and SATCON at 53 kt and 44 kt, respectively.  Using a blend of these
intensity estimates, the initial wind speed has been increased to 50
kt for this advisory.  Kevin remains in a generally favorable
environment of warm water and a moist, unstable atmosphere, however
moderate northeasterly shear is likely to hinder rapid development
over the next day or two. The NHC intensity forecast does call for
steady strengthening and it brings Kevin to hurricane status on
Monday. After 60-72 hours, decreasing SSTs and less favorable
thermodynamic conditions should cause weakening during the latter
portion of the forecast period.  The NHC intensity forecast is
similar to the previous advisory and lies near the ICVN consensus
aid.
 
Kevin is moving westward or 270 degrees at about 7 kt, a little
slower than before. A mid- to upper-level trough west of the Baja
California peninsula is expected to weaken the western portion
of the ridge that is currently steering Kevin westward.  This
should cause the cyclone to turn west-northwestward by Monday
morning, and this west-northwestward heading is then expected to
continue for the remainder of the forecast period.  The track
guidance is in relatively good agreement on the overall forecast
scenario except there are some differences in Kevin's forward
speed. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous
advisory and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope, closest
to the the HCCA and GFEX consensus aids.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/1500Z 15.8N 109.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  09/0000Z 15.8N 110.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  09/1200Z 16.2N 111.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  10/0000Z 16.9N 112.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  10/1200Z 17.7N 114.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  11/0000Z 18.5N 115.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  11/1200Z 19.4N 117.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  12/1200Z 21.2N 120.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  13/1200Z 22.7N 125.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 
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