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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021
1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 07 2021
Last night's METOP-A/B scatterometer overpasses indicated that the
area of low pressure located a couple hundred miles south-southwest
of Manzanillo, Mexico had become a little better defined, and
since that time, the system has developed sufficient organized
convection to be designated as a tropical depression. The initial
intensity is estimated to be 30 kt and is in agreement with the
satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB.
Modest northeasterly shear, warm sea surface temperatures and
a moist surrounding low- to mid-level environment support steady
strengthening during the next few days, and the depression
is forecast to become a tropical storm by tonight. The Statistical
SHIPS (GFS/ECMWF), and the HCCA/IVCN multi-model intensity aids,
all show that the cyclone will become a hurricane in about 48
hours, and the NHC forecast follows suit. The intensity forecast
resembles the HCCA and IVCN intensity consensus models, and is just
below the Decay SHIPS guidance.
The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 275/8 kt. The
depression is being steered by a mid-tropospheric ridge stretching
westward over the subtropical eastern Pacific from high pressure
located over the northern Gulf of Mexico. A general westward motion
with a similar forward speed is expected through early next week.
Through the remaining portion of the forecast, a turn toward the
west-northwest to northwest is expected due to a growing weakness in
the aforementioned ridge. The official forecast is based on the
TVCN multi-model consensus and lies between the GFS and ECMWF global
models solutions.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/1500Z 15.9N 105.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 15.9N 106.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 15.9N 108.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 15.9N 109.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 16.2N 111.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 10/0000Z 16.8N 112.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 18.0N 113.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 19.9N 117.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 12/1200Z 21.7N 121.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
$$
Forecaster Roberts
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