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Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102021
300 PM MDT Sun Aug 01 2021
The well-defined low pressure system located well offshore the
southwestern coast of Mexico that the National Hurricane Center has
been monitoring the past few days has developed enough organized
deep convection to be designated as a tropical depression. Although
the convection is strongly sheared and displaced to the west of the
slightly elongated low-level center, barely meeting the criteria for
a tropical cyclone, a recent 1733Z ASCAT-B scatterometer pass
revealed a few 28-kt surface wind vectors in the northeastern
quadrant. Thus, the initial intensity is set at what could be a
generous 30 kt. Socorro Island reported a wind gust to 34 kt in a
passing narrow band of showers around 1630 UTC.
The initial motion estimate is west-northwestward or 300/12 kt.
Embedded within deep-layer east-southeasterly steering flow between
Hurricane Hilda to the west-southwest and a sprawling subtropical
ridge to the north, the cyclone is forecast to continue moving
west-northwestward throughout the relatively short forecast period.
The NHC forecast track lies down the middle of the tightly packed
simple- and corrected-consensus models.
The depression has a very narrow window of opportunity of about 24 h
to strengthen. Moderate-to-strong northeasterly vertical wind shear
that has been hindering development the past few days is expected to
gradually decrease from the current 19-22 kt down to around 10-12 kt
in 18-24 h, which could allow for some slight intensification late
tonight and/or early Monday morning when another nocturnal burst of
convection is likely to occur. By 36 h, however, the cyclone is
forecast to move over sub-26C sea-surface temperatures and into a
drier and more stable air mass, which could induce rapid weakening,
with the system degenerating into a remnant low by 48 h and
dissipation expected by 72 h. The official intensity forecast is
similar to but slightly above the simple- and corrected-consensus
intensity models IVCN and HCCA, respectively.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/2100Z 17.4N 111.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 18.1N 113.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 19.0N 115.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 19.9N 117.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 20.6N 119.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 04/0600Z 20.9N 120.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Stewart
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