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Tropical Storm Hilda Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021
800 PM PDT Wed Aug 04 2021
Hilda's satellite appearance has changed little over the past
several hours. Small bursts of moderate to deep convection persist
in the eastern semicircle of the system, and the low-level center is
still partially exposed to the west of the convective cloud mass.
Without any recent scatterometer data, the initial intensity is held
at 35 kt for this advisory, in best agreement with a T2.5/35 kt
Dvorak classification from TAFB.
A subtropical ridge over the eastern North Pacific continues to
steer Hilda west-northwestward, or 290/7 kt. This general motion is
expected to continue for the next day or so, followed by a slight
westward turn on Friday as the shallow cyclone becomes steered by a
low-level ridge to its north. While most of the models show limited
interaction between Hilda and TD Nine-E to its southwest, it is
worth noting that the GFS moves both Nine-E and Hilda much farther
northward than the rest of the guidance. The GFS solution is not
favored at this time, and the latest NHC track forecast remains very
similar to the previous one and lies near the multi-model guidance
consensus.
Hilda is not expected to remain a tropical storm for much longer. As
sea surface temperatures decrease along its track and the cyclone
moves into a drier, more stable environment, it will become
increasingly difficult for Hilda to sustain organized convection
near its center. The latest NHC forecast calls for Hilda to weaken
to a tropical depression on Thursday and degenerate to a 25-kt
remnant low on Friday morning. Then, the global models agree that
the system should open into a trough and dissipate by Saturday
morning well east of the Hawaiian Islands.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/0300Z 19.6N 128.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 20.2N 130.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 21.3N 132.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 22.1N 134.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 07/0000Z 22.6N 137.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch
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