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Tropical Storm Hilda Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021
200 PM PDT Wed Aug 04 2021
Convection associated with Hilda continues to weaken and shrink in
areal coverage due to modest northwesterly vertical wind shear,
sub-25C sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), and entrainment of stable,
cold-air stratocumulus clouds. A 1656Z partial ASCAT-A scatterometer
pass revealed two 33-kt vectors in the southeastern quadrant in the
radius-of-maximum winds. Even allowing for some undersampling, this
indicates that Hilda is barely hanging on to tropical storm status,
and the initial intensity will remain at 35 kt for this advisory.
Model analyses show virtually no instability in the center of and
north of Hilda right now, and with the cyclone forecast to move over
even cooler water and into increasing westerly wind shear during the
next 12-24 hours, a rapid decrease in both the convection and
cyclone's intensity appears to be forthcoming soon. Hilda is
forecast to become a depression later tonight and a remnant low
on Thursday. Dissipation is expected by late Friday or Saturday
well to the east of the Hawaiian Islands. The latest NHC official
intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and follows
a blend of the HCCA and IVCN consensus intensity models.
Hilda continues on a steady west-northwestward course or 295/08 kt.
This general motion is expected to continue into Thursday,
followed by a more westward motion on Friday and Saturday as a low-
to mid-level ridge builds to north of Hilda on days 2 and 3. The
official NHC track forecast is essentially just an update of
the previous advisory track, and lies along the southern edge of
the guidance envelope between the tightly packed consensus track
models to the north and the ECMWF model to the south.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/2100Z 19.4N 128.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 20.0N 129.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 21.0N 131.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 21.8N 133.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 06/1800Z 22.4N 136.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 07/0600Z 23.0N 138.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Stewart
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