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Tropical Depression Guillermo Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072021
800 PM PDT Mon Jul 19 2021
Sub-25C waters, dry and stable air, and moderate west-southwesterly
shear have taken their toll on Guillermo. The depression has now
been devoid of organized deep convection for several hours and
mainly consists of a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds. A blend of
the latest Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the
UW-CIMSS ADT indicate that the initial intensity remains 30 kt. The
path of the depression should keep it over waters of around 23-24C
over the next few days. This combined with the other negative
environmental factors should continue to prevent any long-lived deep
convection from redeveloping. Therefore, Guillermo is now forecast
to become a remnant low on Tuesday. Thereafter, the weakening vortex
should open up into a trough within a few days.
Guillermo is now moving a little faster, with a 12-h motion of
270/16 kt as it has become embedded within the easterly flow on the
south side of a low- to mid-level subtropical ridge. This ridge is
forecast to remain in place for several days, which should keep the
depression on a west, or just south-of-west trajectory for the
remainder of its existence. The official track forecast is near the
previous one through 24 h, and then was nudged slightly to the south
beyond 24 h due to a southward shift in the overall track guidance.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/0300Z 19.3N 122.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 19.0N 124.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 18.5N 127.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 21/1200Z 18.0N 130.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 22/0000Z 17.6N 132.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 22/1200Z 17.3N 135.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 23/0000Z 17.0N 138.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Latto
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