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Tropical Depression Kate Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102021
1100 PM AST Tue Aug 31 2021
 
Some bursts of convection have been forming within Kate's small
circulation during the past several hours, but none of it has any
real significant organization.  In addition, the low clouds appear
to be losing definition, and a very-recent ASCAT-B pass showed that
the maximum winds are now only about 25 kt.  It's going to be
difficult for Kate to make much of a comeback, if at all.  Moderate
northerly shear, dry mid-level air, upper-level convergence, and an
increasingly anticyclonic low-level environment are likely to cause
the circulation to spin down further and make it hard for deep
convection to persist.  Therefore, the NHC official forecast now
calls for additional weakening, with Kate likely becoming a remnant 
low by 36 hours (if not sooner) and dissipating by 72 hours.  This 
scenario is closest to the GFS, HWRF, and HMON solutions.
 
Located on the southwestern periphery of a low-level area of high
pressure, Kate is moving toward the north-northwest (345/9 kt).
The depression is forecast to turn toward the northwest by morning,
but then recurve around the high toward the north and
north-northeast in a couple of days.  The NHC track forecast remains
close to the consensus aids and is generally just an update from the
previous advisory.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/0300Z 25.4N  51.3W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  01/1200Z 26.4N  52.1W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  02/0000Z 27.9N  53.1W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  02/1200Z 29.8N  53.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  03/0000Z 31.6N  54.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  03/1200Z 33.1N  53.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  04/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 
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