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Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102021
1100 PM AST Sat Aug 28 2021
 
The center of the tropical depression remained exposed for much of 
the evening, though in the past hour or so the center has become 
located closer to a small, ragged area of convection. A more 
pronounced curved band can also be seen east of the depression 
though this feature is located over 120 n mi away. This structure is 
due to ongoing west-southwesterly shear and the presence of some dry 
air that continues to plague the cyclone. The latest Dvorak 
intensity estimate from TAFB and wind data from a recent ASCAT-B 
overpass indicate the initial intensity remains 30 kt.
 
Some slight strengthening is possible later tonight through Sunday 
morning as a slight decrease in shear combined with the diurnal 
convective maximum may allow the depression to become a tropical 
storm. Thereafter through 60 h, the shear is forecast to increase, 
while the system moves into an drier environment. Thus, no further 
strengthening is forecast during this period, and the cyclone could 
weaken back into a tropical depression. By around 72 h, global 
models are suggesting that the shear will decrease again. So, some 
gradual strengthening is forecast after that time. It should also be 
noted that the GFS, which earlier forecast the system to degenerate 
into a remnant low in a few days, now keeps the cyclone in tact and 
deepens it when the shear lessens toward the end of the 5-day 
forecast period. The latest NHC intensity forecast is close to the 
previous one through 24 h, but is higher beyond 24 h. This forecast 
is a blend of the SHIPS and IVCN guidance through 72 h, but is lower 
than those solutions after that time.
 
The depression is moving toward the north at 9 kt toward a weakness 
in the subtropical ridge, carved out by a mid- to upper-level trough 
over the north-central Atlantic. This trough and associated ridge 
weakness is forecast to remain in place for the next few days, 
resulting in the cyclone continuing a general northward motion. By 
late in the forecast period, the trough is expected to lift out 
of the region and be replaced by a ridge, which would result in the 
system turning northwestward. The latest NHC track forecast is 
little changed from the previous one and lies near the various 
multi-model consensus tracks.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/0300Z 16.6N  49.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  29/1200Z 17.7N  49.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  30/0000Z 19.4N  49.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  30/1200Z 20.8N  49.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  31/0000Z 22.3N  49.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  31/1200Z 23.5N  49.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  01/0000Z 25.0N  49.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  02/0000Z 28.2N  50.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  03/0000Z 31.5N  51.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Latto
 
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