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Hurricane Henri Discussion Number  26...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082021
500 AM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021
 
Henri's satellite presentation has remained largely unchanged
overnight and early this morning.  Deep convection remains over
the center and NWS Doppler radar imagery has revealed a convection
band that wraps around the circulation forming a loose banding-eye
feature.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft that has
been in the storm for much of the night has reported that the
pressure is slightly lower than earlier, around 986 mb, but the
flight-level and SFMR winds are not quite as high as before.  The
initial intensity is maintained at 65 kt for this advisory. The 
current reconnaissance mission will be in Henri for a few more 
hours and should provide additional information on the storm's 
intensity. 
  
Henri has been moving just west of due north or 350/15 kt.  The
storm is expected to move north-northwestward today around the
northeastern portion of a cut-off low over the central Appalachians.
Some deceleration is indicated by the model guidance, but this
motion should bring the center near the eastern portion of Long
Island and into southern New England later this morning or early
this afternoon.  There is still a little spread in the track
guidance regarding the landfall point, but the updated NHC forecast
lies very close to the previous advisory for the first 12 hours,
and is between the multi-model consensus aids and the ECMWF and GFS
which are slightly to the left.  Regardless of the exact landfall 
location, storm surge, rainfall, and wind hazards will extend far 
from the center.  After landfall, Henri should slow down and turn 
east-northeastward on Monday as it becomes embedded in the southern 
extent of the mid-latitude westerlies. The guidance envelope has 
shifted a little westward from 24 to 48 hours, and the NHC forecast 
has been adjusted accordingly.
 
Henri has moved north of the north wall of the Gulf Stream and will 
encounter cooler waters on its approach to New England. Although 
some slight weakening is possible, Henri is expected to at or near 
hurricane strength when it reaches the coast of southern New 
England.  Even if slight weakening does occur it will have little 
difference on the expected storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts.  
Rapid weakening should occur after landfall. Henri is expected to 
weaken to a tropical depression by early Monday, and become 
post-tropical shortly thereafter. 

With the center within radar range and fairly well trackable, 
hourly Tropical Cyclone Updates will be issued beginning at 600 AM 
EDT (1000 UTC) to provide updates on Henri's center location.  These 
updates will continue as long as the center remains trackable in 
radar imagery. 

Key Messages:
 
1. Dangerous storm surge inundation is expected to begin this
morning in portions of Long Island, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and
southeastern Massachusetts, where a Storm Surge Warning has been
issued. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by
local officials.
 
2. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin this morning in
portions of Long Island, Connecticut, and Rhode Island, where a
Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions
will begin in these areas within the next couple of hours.
 
3. Heavy rainfall may lead to considerable flash, urban, and small
stream flooding, along with the potential for widespread minor to
isolated moderate river flooding over portions of Long Island, New
England, eastern New York and New Jersey.
 
4. Swells from Henri will continue to affect much of the east coast
of the U.S. during the next day or so. These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip currents.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/0900Z 40.1N  71.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  22/1800Z 41.5N  71.7W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
 24H  23/0600Z 42.7N  72.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 36H  23/1800Z 43.5N  72.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 48H  24/0600Z 43.8N  70.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 60H  24/1800Z 44.2N  67.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  25/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 
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