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BULLETIN
Hurricane Grace Advisory Number  29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072021
1000 AM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021
 
...GRACE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE STRENGTHENING...
...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 94.3W
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM E OF TUXPAN MEXICO
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM NE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Puerto Veracruz to Cabo Rojo
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from north of Cabo Rojo to Barra del
Tordo
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 to 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere withing the warning area, in this case within 12
to 24 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Grace was located 
near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 94.3 West.  Grace is moving 
toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h).  This general motion at a 
slightly slower forward speed is expected during the next day or so. 
On the forecast track, the center of Grace is forecast to move 
across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon, and then make 
landfall along the coast of mainland Mexico within the hurricane 
warning area this evening or tonight.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate 
that maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher 
gusts.  Strengthening is forecast until Grace makes landfall, with 
rapid weakening expected as Grace moves inland over the mountains of 
central Mexico.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches) is 
based on data collected by the aircraft. 
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 4 to 6 ft above normal tide levels along the immediate 
coast within the hurricane warning area near and north of where the 
center makes landfall tonight. Near the coast, the surge will be 
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the 
hurricane warning area in mainland Mexico by late this evening, with 
tropical storm conditions expected this afternoon. Tropical storm 
conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area in 
mainland Mexico by late this afternoon.
 
RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:
 
Over Veracruz, Puebla, Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, northern Queretaro, and
eastern San Luis Potosi...6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum 
totals of 18 inches are expected today through Sunday. Heavy 
rainfall from Grace will result in areas of flash and urban
flooding as well as mudslides.
 
SURF: High surf generated by Grace will affect the southern Gulf of
Mexico coastline today and continue into the weekend. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Cangialosi
 
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