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TROPICAL STORM GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072021
0900 UTC WED AUG 18 2021
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR JAMAICA.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST CUBAN PROVINCES OF GRANMA...LAS TUNAS...AND
CAMAGUEY. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE
CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...
MATANZAS HAVE ALSO BEEN DISCONTINUED.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTH AND WEST COASTS OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM WEST OF DZILAM TO CAMPECHE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM CANCUN TO PUNTA HERRERO... 
INCLUDING COZUMEL
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAYMAN ISLANDS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAYMAN ISLANDS
* YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO CAMPECHE
* YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF PUNTA HERRERO TO PUERTO
COSTA MAYA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN COAST CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO...AS WELL AS ISLA
DE LA JUVENTUD
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GRACE.  ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY
BE REQUIRED LATER THIS MORNING.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N  80.9W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  14 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT.......100NE  90SE   0SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N  80.9W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N  80.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 19.3N  83.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 19.9N  86.4W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 20.3N  89.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE  60SE   0SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.6N  92.1W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...100NE  40SE  30SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.7N  94.4W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  40SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.7N  96.8W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  40SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 20.6N 101.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N  80.9W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 18/1200Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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