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TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072021
0300 UTC TUE AUG 17 2021
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN COAST OF THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...GRANMA...LAS TUNAS...AND CAMAGUEY
* CAYMAN ISLANDS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI
* JAMAICA
* SOUTHERN COAST OF THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI 
SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...AND PINAR DEL RIO...AS WELL AS 
ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF GRACE.  WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
YUCATAN COAST EARLY TUESDAY.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N  73.8W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  45 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N  73.8W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N  73.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 18.6N  75.7W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 19.1N  78.8W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE   0SE   0SW  55NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 19.7N  82.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 20.3N  85.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  30SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 21.0N  88.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE  80SE  40SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 21.6N  91.3W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...120NE  70SE  40SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 22.2N  95.9W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 22.5N 100.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N  73.8W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 17/0600Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY
 
 
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